Oscar Predictions - December 5, 2015

With Top 10’s and Best of the Year lists starting to come out, the Oscar picture is getting a little clearer. It is still extremely foggy with no real frontrunner as of now, but we can start to narrow down some movies. The only movie we are waiting for is “Star Wars: The Force Awakens”, which could change the game.

You can watch all the trailers by clicking on the titles of films.

BEST PICTURE:

Some shake up has happened since my last predictions. The Revenant, Joy, and The Hateful Eight have all screened and screened very well. The biggest movers have been Mad Max: Fury Road, which won Best Picture at The National Board of Review and The Boston Film Critics and The Martian, which has made a ton of money and everyone loves. Creed is a crowd pleaser and can bring back some memories of the original Rocky, which won Best Picture in 1976. I had doubts about Brooklyn, but after seeing it, it’s exactly what the Academy loves. I think it will come down to Spotlight and The Revenant, with Carol and The Hateful Eight as possible spoilers.

1- SPOTLIGHT

2 – THE REVENANT

3- CAROL

4- THE HATEFUL EIGHT

5 – BRIDGE OF SPIES

6- MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

7 – THE MARTIAN

8- ROOM

9- BROOKLYN

10 – CREED

BEST DIRECTOR

I think we are in line for a split between Picture and Director, a la 2012 and 2013. Reviews of The Revenant are saying it is a brutal film that highlights Inarritu’s direction. Spotlight is more of an ensemble piece, not so much a director’s movie, though Tom McCarthy does do subtle, great work. Todd Haynes will get in for Carol as it continues to kill it on the circuit. It will be a battle for the last couple spots between, Ridley Scott for The Martian, Quentin Tarantino for The Hateful Eight, Steven Spielberg Bridge of Spies, and George Miller for Mad Max: Fury Road.

1- ALEJANDRO CONZALEZ INARRITU – THE REVENANT

2- Tom McCarthy – Spotlight

3- Todd Haynes – Carol

4- Ridley Scott – The Martian

5- Quentin Tarantino – The Hateful Eight

BEST ACTOR

The hype for DiCaprio is real. He is the surefire frontrunner to win his elusive Oscar. I think the only one who can stop him is Matt Damon in The Martian, but even his performance isn’t a meaty one. This is DiCaprio’s year.

1- LEONARDO DICAPRIO – THE REVENANT

2- Matt Damon – The Martian

3- Michael Fassbender – Steve Jobs

4- Johnny Depp – Black Mass

5- Michael Caine – Youth

BEST ACTRESS

Brie Larson is still the frontrunner and by good margin. If anyone can spoil it, it’s Jennifer Lawrence for Joy, who is said to be great once again. Saoirse Ronan is wonderful in Brooklyn, but I think is too young to win. And Cate Blanchett is a surefire nominee, but like Meryl Streep, everything she does is great.

1- BRIE LARSON – ROOM

2-Jennifer Lawrence – Joy

3- Saoirse Ronan – Brooklyn

4 – Cate Blanchett – Carol

5- Carey Mulligan – Suffragette

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Sylvester Stallone Oscar winner? Could be this year and he deserves it, for a heartbreaking, masterful performance in Creed. Michael Keaton and Mark Ruffalo will both be nominated, unless they push one for Best Actor. I’m skeptical about Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies, as his performance, while good, doesn’t have the gravitas other performances do. I think Bradley Cooper from Joy could make a run like he has the last two years.

1- SYLVESTER STALLONE – CREED

2 – Michael Keaton – Spotlight

3 – Mark Ruffalo – Spotlight

4- Mark Rylance – Bridge of Spies

5- Tom Hardy – The Revenant

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

With Carol being so well received, Rooney Mara might be the films best chance at a prize. Tarantino has great history with actors, so Jennifer Jason Leigh can’t be forgotten. Alicia Vikander has had arguably the best year from any actor, but The Danish Girl has fallen off a bit and is receiving some harsh backlash. And watch out for Kristen Stewart in Clouds of Sils Maria. She’s shown up on a few lists and won a Cesar (France’s Oscars) for this role.

1- ROONEY MARA – CAROL

2- Jennifer Jason Leigh – The Hateful Eight

3- Alicia Vikander – The Danish Girl

4- Jane Fonda – Youth

5- Kristen Stewart – Clouds of Sils Maria

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

I’m sticking with Academy favorite Quentin Tarantino, as The Hateful Eight looks like a film highlighted by Tarantino’s words. This is usually where they award Tarantino, since his films are usually too violent for the Academy. Spotlight is the only other contender that could give it trouble.

1- THE HATEFUL EIGHT

2- Spotlight

3- Inside Out

4- Bridge of Spies

5- Joy

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

The Martian has come on strong these last few months and one of the reasons is because people love how close it was to the book. If it is to win something outside of tech awards, it will be here. The best part of Steve Jobs is Aaron Sorkin’s screenplay and shouldn’t go unnoticed. And The Revenant will be a big player, so it could sneak a win in here.

1- THE MARTIAN

2- The Revenant

3 – Steve Jobs

4- Carol

5- Brooklyn